A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
